How do you know when the move your making is a profitable one? When you take a look at your expected value or Ev for short. Expected value takes a look at the odds to make your hand and the odds that the pot is offering to show you whether or not you are making a long term profitable play. Since poker is looked at as a life long session, it's important to keep in mind that even though some plays seem to be incorrect, as long as the odds to make your hand are better than your pot odds, your plays will become profitable over time. An equation looks like this: Odds Need to Make Your Hand < Pot Odds. Lets take a look at a -Ev and a +Ev situation to better clarify expected value.

There is $700 in the pot and it takes you $200 to call so your pot odds are 3.5:1 You have a "gut shot" straight draw with 4 outs and odds of roughly 11:1 Your expected value would look like this 11:1 > 3.5:1

As you look at this, could you expect a long term profit? Absolutely not as this is not in your favor! Why? Well, lets plug in the numbers. You are losing about 11 times out of 12 at the cost of $200 a piece. ( $200 x 11 = $2200 ) and you are winning once and gaining back about $900 ( $200 call + $700 pot ). When you do the math, it shows that you have lost about $1300 on this play. ( $2200 - $900 )

So, it is obvious that you do not want to chase this hand any further and should let it go if needed. Now lets look at a slight different scenario:

There is $700 in the pot and it takes you $100 to call so your odds are 7:1 You have an "open end" straight draw with 8 outs and odds at roughly 6:1 Your expected value would look like this 6:1 < 7:1

Now this would be definite call. Why? As you can see, you are getting much better odds to hit your hand than the odds the pot is offering. If you attempt to chase your draw, 6 times out of 7 you will lose for a loss of $600 ( 6 x $100 ) but you will win once for a profit of $800 ( $700 pot and $100 call ). So your expected value would be a profit of $200 ( $800 - $600 )!

An important thing to remember that in poker expected value can be altered. If the same thing happened in the example above, you would obviously be ahead. However, you Ev can be affected by things such as bluffs ( by either you or your opponent ), implied odds, or history with another player. You will have to keep these things in mind because they can all alter your long term value.

Using the same hand above, lets say every time you hit your hand, you would bet the pot in hopes someone would call you and 50% of the time someone does. How does this affect your Ev? In a positive way, as you know for a fact you would get called 1 for every 2 times you made the bet. So, you would make an extra $800 every other time you hit your open ender and made a pot sized bet giving you $1600 while increasing your net profit to $1800. This will affect your Ev and give you implied odds. This is an exaggerated example, but gives you an idea that there is many factors that can affect your long terms winnings, whether it's positive or negative.

To sum this up, it is easier to remember that as long as the odds to hit your draws are better than the price you are paying to see the next community card ,you will be making a profit in the long run. Expected value, pot odds, and implied odds are really simple and come with practice. Most of it can even be memorized. In closing, if you can make the correct mathematical decisions and remember that the game of poker is a life long session of odds, in time you will become a profitable poker player.

Other Beginners Texas Hold'em Strategy:

Table Position for Beginners Poker Player

Five Tips to Beating the Small Stakes

Factors to Consider Before Moving Up Limits

Reasons You Should Take Notes While Playing Online Poker

Online Poker Tells